Methodology
Built on rules.Validated by history.
Every threshold. Every input. Every signal change. Written down, public, dated. The radical transparency is the brand.
The basics
Rules, not guesses.
Six rules-based equity models read a fixed set of market inputs every day. When the inputs cross pre-defined thresholds, the model shifts posture. No discretion. No overrides. No “but this time it’s different.”
13
signals
checked every close · per market
18
years
backtested across cycles
6
models
five equity markets + one FI
How the signals work
13 inputs. One decision.
Volatility
VIX, realized vol, vol-of-vol
FX
USD-pair stress in non-US markets
Commodity
Oil, copper signals
Momentum
Index 1m / 3m / vs 200d
Banking
Banking sector drawdown + momentum
Each signal gets a score from 0–1. The 13 scores combine into one stress reading. When the reading crosses a pre-defined threshold, the model shifts posture. That’s the entire decision rule.
Backtest discipline
How we tested.
Every backtest used point-in-time data, walk-forward parameter selection, and an out-of-sample reveal locked in by pre-registration. No cherry-picking. No optimization on the test set. No survivorship bias.
- Universe: point-in-time index constituents. Mergers and delistings handled honestly.
- Parameters: selected on the in-sample window (2003–2017) and frozen.
- Test: 2018–2025 held out and revealed exactly once.
- Robustness: tested across five stress regimes — GFC, COVID, rate shock, oil shock, Euro crisis.
- All audit CSVs are public. Every signal change is dated. Every assumption is named.
Per-model deep dives
Read the rules per market.
US Stocks · FLX-US
→Index, sector and stock sleeves · monthly or quarterly re-rank · weekly crash gate.
US Bonds · FLX-US Income
→Two caution dials — credit stress and rate jitters · event-driven, no calendar rebalance.
India Stocks · FLX-IN
→NIFTY 50 momentum · quarterly re-rank · 13-signal stress panel.
Canada Stocks · FLX-CA
→TSX 60 momentum · re-rank every 2 months · 13-signal stress panel.
UK Stocks · FLX-UK
→FTSE 100 momentum · re-rank every 2 months · 13-signal stress panel.
Korea Stocks · FLX-KR
→KOSPI 200 momentum · re-rank every 2 months · 13-signal stress panel.
Disclosures
Foliox publishes systematic model output for educational use only. Not investment advice. Not registered as an investment adviser, portfolio manager, or dealer. Hypothetical backtest results do not reflect real outcomes and do not predict future performance. Live track record starts 2026-07-01. For personal financial advice, consult a registered professional.