Methodology
Built on rules.Validated by history.
Every threshold. Every input. Every signal change. Written down, public, dated. The radical transparency is the brand.
The basics
Rules, not guesses.
Five rules-based equity models read a fixed set of market inputs every day. When the inputs cross pre-defined thresholds, the model shifts posture. No discretion. No overrides. No “but this time it’s different.”
13
signals
international models · every close
22
years
backtested across cycles
5
models
five equity momentum markets
How the signals work
13 inputs. One decision.
Volatility
VIX, realized vol, vol-of-vol
FX
USD-pair stress in non-US markets
Commodity
Oil, copper signals
Momentum
Index 1m / 3m / vs 200d
Banking
Banking sector drawdown + momentum
Each signal gets a score from 0–1. The 13 scores combine into one stress reading. When the reading crosses a pre-defined threshold, the model shifts posture. That’s the entire decision rule.
This 13-signal panel drives the four international models. FLX-US uses a focused version of the same idea — a crash gate on trend and volatility (1- and 3-month trend plus VIX), with its four shields deciding which sleeve shelters when it fires.
The basket layer
Hold the leaders. Rotate the rest.
Each model keeps most of its money in the broad market index, and the rest in a short list of the strongest stocks. On a fixed quarterly schedule, every market, the universe is re-ranked by trailing 12-1 momentum. What’s still strong stays; what’s faded gets swapped out. No favourites, no sentiment.
Illustrative — each model’s real holdings are on its dashboard
Backtest discipline
How we tested.
Every backtest used point-in-time data, walk-forward parameter selection, and an out-of-sample reveal locked in by pre-registration. No cherry-picking. No optimization on the test set. No survivorship bias.
- Universe: point-in-time index constituents. Mergers and delistings handled honestly.
- Parameters: selected on the in-sample window (2003–2017) and frozen.
- Test: 2018–2025 held out and revealed exactly once.
- Robustness: tested across five stress regimes — GFC, COVID, rate shock, oil shock, Euro crisis.
- All audit CSVs are public. Every signal change is dated. Every assumption is named.
Per-model deep dives
Read the rules per market.
US Stocks · FLX-US
→80% equal-weight SPY/QQQ/IWM + 20% momentum stocks · four crash-gate shields · quarterly re-rank.
India Stocks · FLX-IN
→NIFTY 50 momentum · quarterly re-rank · 13-signal stress panel.
Canada Stocks · FLX-CA
→TSX 60 momentum · quarterly re-rank · 13-signal stress panel.
UK Stocks · FLX-UK
→FTSE 100 momentum · quarterly re-rank · 13-signal stress panel.
Korea Stocks · FLX-KR
→KOSPI 200 momentum · quarterly re-rank · 13-signal stress panel.
Disclosures
Foliox publishes systematic model output for educational use only. Not investment advice. Not registered as an investment adviser, portfolio manager, or dealer. Hypothetical backtest results do not reflect real outcomes and do not predict future performance. Live signal record starts 2026-06-01. The live segment is model output published in real time; no client capital follows the model, so it is not the realized return of any investor. For personal financial advice, consult a registered professional.