Built on rules. Validated by history.
A plain-English guide to how Foliox signals work — and how to use them.
The basics
Rules, not guesses.
Foliox signals are built on multi-factor models that process a defined set of market inputs on a daily or monthly basis. When outputs cross pre-established thresholds — grounded in historical data — a signal is generated. No discretion, no overrides. Thresholds are continuously refined as new data enters the record.
8
Bond model input factors
500+
Equities universe ranked monthly
3
Independent signal layers
The models
15–20 years of data. Continuously refined.
Each signal is backtested across 15 to 20 years of market history — covering full market cycles including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 rate shock. We don't build models that only work in hindsight. We stress-test them across different regimes: rising rates, credit stress, equity drawdowns, and low-volatility expansions.
Models evolve. As new market data enters the record, we update our assumptions, re-run backtests, and refine thresholds. You'll always see the model version and last update date on each signal page.
15–20 yrs
Backtest history
3+
Full market cycles covered
Multi-pillar
Confirmation required
Reading the signal
What the signal tells you — and what it doesn't.
Each signal outputs a direction and, where applicable, a model-derived allocation across ETFs for reference purposes. It reflects what the model sees based on current market data — not a recommendation to act.
| What it tells you | What it doesn't tell you |
|---|---|
| — Current market regime | — Exactly when to buy or sell |
| — Suggested allocation across ETFs | — That it will be right every time |
| — When the signal last changed | — What to do with your full portfolio |
Taking action
Review. Decide. Rebalance.
Signals are inputs, not orders. When a signal changes, some investors review it alongside their existing portfolio and decide whether any action is appropriate given their own tax situation, account type, and risk tolerance. Any decision to act — and how — remains entirely with the investor.
Most signals update daily or monthly. Checking more frequently adds no informational value.
Risk
Discipline beats prediction.
The goal of rules-based systems isn't to predict the market — it's to reduce exposure to catastrophic drawdowns while remaining invested through recoveries. Rules-based models are designed to be applied consistently. Selective application — engaging with outputs only when they feel intuitive — undermines the statistical basis on which the model is built.
Disclosures
Foliox signals are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Signal methodologies
Dive deeper into each signal.
Each signal has its own detailed methodology page covering thresholds, backtest results, and design decisions.