Stocks for Thoughts

Thoughts on the AI Trade— by Margin

A running log on the biggest trade in the market. We break down what you actually own, follow the money through it, and test each narrative against the evidence as it develops. I don't decide the ending before we look. Open any box below.

Living log · newest open Figures 2026 — re-verify before relying

How to read this log: each box follows the money on one piece of the AI trade and lands where the evidence lands — sometimes calm, sometimes not. New narratives get added in teaching order (the value chain stays first); the newest entry opens by default. Figures are 2026 reporting on fast-moving deals and should be re-verified before relying on them. A framework for thinking, not a forecast, recommendation, or investment advice.

* What counts as an "AI" stock: no official list, so we don't guess — a name qualifies if it passes either of two reproducible tests. It trades like AI (its returns move with a market-stripped chip-core factor — catches the hardware: Lam, KLA, Vertiv) or it demonstrably sells AI (recurring "generative AI" language across its SEC filings, AI-washing filtered out — catches the software: Salesforce, Adobe, Palantir). The two barely overlap, so we keep the union, tier it, and hold Mag 7 in its own bucket — reproducible from prices and public filings, not vibes.